HIA: Two Years In, the Housing Accord Is 94,980 Homes Behind and States Missed $11 Billion in Tax. June-Quarter Starts Rose 7%, but 2027 Is the Test.
The ABS June 2026 quarter Building Activity release, out on 7 October, closed the first two full years of the 1.2 million homes target. HIA says commencements leave Australia 94,980 dwellings behind, costing an estimated $45 billion in activity and about $11 billion in stamp duty and GST. Seasonally adjusted starts rose 7.0% to 52,201 in the quarter, led by houses, but HIA says that reflects 2025 sales and the effect of this year’s rate rises and Budget housing tax changes will show on site in 2027.
Two years in, the Accord is 94,980 homes behind
The ABS Building Activity release for the June 2026 quarter, published on Wednesday 7 October 2026, closed out the first two full years of the National Housing Accord's 1.2 million homes target, which started on 1 July 2024.
On the same day the Housing Industry Association put a number on the gap. "Based on new home commencements for the first two years of the Housing Accord, Australia is now 94,980 dwellings behind the target," HIA Managing Director Jocelyn Martin said.
This article summarises the ABS release and HIA's published estimates. It is not financial or legal advice.
What the June quarter showed
In seasonally adjusted terms, the ABS reported for the June 2026 quarter:
| Measure (seasonally adjusted, June quarter 2026) | Result | Change on March quarter | | --- | --- | --- | | Total dwelling commencements | 52,201 | up 7.0% | | New private sector house commencements | 31,707 | up 11.6% | | New private sector other residential commencements | 19,126 | down 0.1% | | Value of total building work done | $45.8 billion | up 1.1% |
So the quarter itself was better, led by detached houses. HIA's read is that it should not be taken as a turning point. "While the building activity results for the June 2026 quarter showed improvement, this is more an indication of approvals and sales from 2025 and does not reflect the Budget changes with respect to housing taxation or interest rate rises this year – the effects of which we expect to become evident on the ground in 2027," Ms Martin said.
That lines up with what builders have been told for several months: today's slabs were sold a year or more ago, and the sales books that will feed 2027 starts are being written now.
HIA's cost of the shortfall
HIA used the shortfall, together with state and territory tax settings, to estimate what did not happen over the two years:
- $45 billion in economic activity that the missing homes would have generated.
- 242,160 Australians who could potentially have been housed, based on average household sizes.
- $2.8 billion in stamp duty and $8.2 billion in GST not generated or collected, about $11 billion combined for the states and territories.
- Additional revenue that HIA says could have funded the equivalent of 43,455 essential workers nationally over the two years.
"New housing is revenue positive to government, whereas additional taxation as we saw in this year's Federal budget will only serve to reduce supply," Ms Martin said. HIA wants governments to cut the cost of land and housing rather than tax new housing production further.
Skills are the other half of the gap
Labour is the other constraint in the same week's news. On 6 October 2026 Master Builders Australia welcomed the Coalition's commitment to prioritise construction skills through its proposed migration reforms, while noting its Workforce Blueprint projects a shortage of more than 900,000 workers by 2035. CEO Denita Wawn flagged reservations about how a cut to temporary visas could affect non-skilled labour on sites.
HIA also backed better-aligned skilled migration, project-based visa pathways and regional pathways, while saying migration alone will not fix supply, as reported by Infrastructure Magazine on 7 October 2026.
What it means for the builder's desk
- Read the quarter for what it is. Stronger June-quarter house starts mostly reflect 2025 sales. Check your own enquiry and contract numbers for the past six months before you plan 2027 crews.
- Keep your pipeline honest. If HIA is right that this year's rate rises and Budget housing tax changes show up on site in 2027, the gap between signed contracts and starts is the number to watch.
- Lock in trades early. With industry bodies on both sides of politics talking about skills shortages, secure your core subbies for the jobs you have already sold.
- Use the numbers in submissions. HIA's $11 billion tax estimate and the 94,980 shortfall are the figures industry will take into state budget and planning talks. Councils and state agencies are being asked to cut the cost of land and approvals.
The next ABS Building Activity release, for the September 2026 quarter, is scheduled for 13 January 2027.
Sources: ABS, Building Activity, Australia, June 2026 (released 7 October 2026); HIA, Housing target shortfall an $11 billion black hole for states and territories (7 October 2026); Master Builders Australia, Builders welcome Opposition focus on construction skills (6 October 2026); Infrastructure Magazine, Construction workforce capacity key to housing supply (7 October 2026).
