Industry Modelling: Housing Package Estimated to Cut 10,700 Homes and Lift Rents ~$10/Week. Recast Pipeline Off the Updated Print.
On 11 September 2026 the Housing Industry Association, Master Builders Australia, the Property Council of Australia and the Real Estate Institute of Australia released updated independent modelling of the Federal Budget housing package. Qaive and Tulipwood Economics now estimate that between 2026–27 and 2029–30 the combined measures reduce new dwelling starts by 10,700, lift rents by about $10 a week, cut cumulative GDP by about $1.05 billion, and remove more than 4,700 construction jobs. Recast tender books and labour plans off that published print — not off the Government’s claimed upside alone.
Updated industry modelling — 10,700 fewer starts
On 11 September 2026, the Housing Industry Association, Master Builders Australia, the Property Council of Australia and the Real Estate Institute of Australia released updated independent modelling of the Federal Budget housing package.
The analysis by Qaive and Tulipwood Economics examines the cumulative impact of the Budget’s primary housing tax reforms — including changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concession arrangements — together with the $2 billion Housing Support Program. The update also incorporates the additional Labor–Greens measure that prohibits self-managed super funds from using limited recourse borrowing arrangements to purchase ordinary residential investment property.
Between 2026–27 and 2029–30, the combined measures are estimated to:
- reduce new dwelling starts by 10,700;
- increase rents by approximately $10 per week;
- reduce cumulative GDP by approximately $1.05 billion; and
- cut construction jobs by more than 4,700.
This article summarises published industry modelling figures. It is not legal, tax, lending or investment advice. Individual jobs turn on contracts, finance and local planning — not a national model alone.
What changed from the post-Budget print
HIA said the findings represent a further deterioration from modelling released immediately after the Budget, which already showed the package would reduce housing construction, weaken economic activity and place additional pressure on renters.
The industry bodies framed the point simply: Australia cannot resolve its housing shortage through policies that make it harder to finance, build and supply rental homes. With the national 1.2 million-home target already under pressure, settings estimated to remove 10,700 new homes move Australia further from that objective.
Government claims vs industry print
The HIA release notes the housing industry remains concerned about the gap between Government expectations and the independent modelling. The Government has claimed its housing measures will deliver:
- around 75,000 additional owner-occupiers over the next decade;
- a rent increase of less than $2 per week for a household paying the current median rent;
- house-price growth around 2 per cent lower over several years than it would otherwise have been; and
- up to 30,000 additional homes over the decade when combined with other supply measures.
Do not invent which of those claims will “win”. Hold both published sets beside your own tender book and report both when clients or lenders ask.
Practical moves for the next four weeks
1. Recast the board pack off “the package adds supply”. Put −10,700 starts, ~$10/week rents, −$1.05bn GDP and −4,700+ construction jobs on the same page as the Government’s 75,000 owner-occupier / <$2/week rent / up to 30,000 homes claims.
2. Stress investor and SMSF-linked pipeline separately. The update explicitly folds in the SMSF limited-recourse borrowing ban on ordinary residential investment property. If your book leans investor or SMSF-funded, segregate that risk — do not invent a statewide SMSF volume from this national model.
3. Keep labour and materials decisions on published numbers. A national job loss of more than 4,700 is not a site roster. Use it to stress-test apprenticeship intake and subcontractor coverage against your own forward orders.
4. Keep client and lender language on published figures only. Factual line: HIA/MBA/PCA/REIA 11 Sep 2026 — Qaive/Tulipwood estimate −10,700 dwelling starts (2026–27 to 2029–30), rents +~$10/week, GDP −~$1.05bn, construction jobs −4,700+.
5. Do not invent a “every state loses X homes” split. Cite the national cumulative print unless and until the industry publishes a jurisdictional breakdown.
Bottom line for the desk
On 11 September 2026, HIA, Master Builders, the Property Council and REIA published updated modelling estimating the Budget housing package will cut 10,700 new dwelling starts between 2026–27 and 2029–30, lift rents by about $10 a week, reduce cumulative GDP by about $1.05 billion, and remove more than 4,700 construction jobs. Recast pipeline and labour planning off that published print — not off the Government’s claimed upside alone.
